delta∆effect 23.2: Using Foresight To Drive Strategy Development.
In an ever-changing world, the ability to anticipate future trends, challenges, and opportunities is a significant advantage. This is where foresight, a potent tool used to make sense of possible futures, comes into play. Foresight doesn't just aid in understanding what lies ahead; it also empowers us to influence those futures, and importantly, allows us to prepare for the unpredictable nature of tomorrow with more confidence and greater reliability. Let's delve into the concept of foresight and how we can utilise it to navigate the sea of uncertainties that our futures invariably hold.
According to Roy Amara (1), a former president of the Institute for the Future, three fundamental premises form the foundations of futures thinking:
Futures are not predictable;
Futures are not predetermined;
Future outcomes can be influenced by our choices in the present.
Amara's three laws of futures provide a helpful starting point for understanding how to use foresight. First, we must accept that our futures are uncertain and unpredictable. We can anticipate what might happen, we can prepare for a range of futures, but ultimately, our futures are in a perpetual state of flux. Secondly, we have, by actively engaging in thinking about futures, increased our ability to influence what futures emerge. This idea that we can play a role in what might happen next is critical to accepting that using foresight is an active rather than a passive process. As an active process, foresight becomes an empowering tool that enables us to make decisions on how best to navigate towards our futures.
Bringing "out there" closer in.
"Futures don't just happen to us, they happen with us."
Too often we see the external world as beyond our influence. We think futures happen to us, rather than with us and forget that we have more power to shape our futures than we give ourselves credit for. By building empathy for futures and in turn, bringing “out there” closer we can start to see the changing world around us as something that we actively engage with, rather than something that is removed from us.
In times of rapid change and disruption, this ability to be more reflective and aware of our context is essential. We are potentially entering a period of rapid and unforeseen global transformation as multiple developments across society, technology, the economy, the environment and politics converge onto the same timeline. Reclaiming the innate human ability of prospection (the act of viewing, exploring and anticipating(2)) brings with it an opportunity to better understand emerging change rather than being overwhelmed by it.
Foresight can help to create bridges between our present and our futures. By carefully identifying, qualifying, quantifying and assessing the changing world around us we can better sense the implications of change and allow space for reflection on what a range of potential futures could mean. Being able to make sense of the seismic shifts occurring is an essential part of our ability to make decisions and take action in the present with a clearer view of the long-term implications.
Implications before applications.
Having created a broader view of the change occurring around us, we can start to reflect on the implications it could have. Short-term thinking anchors us in the applications of change as we attempt to resolve the immediate problems in front of us. However, often these decisions are taken without fully understanding the implications they may have.
Mostly the immediate applications or "what should we do now?" reactions to change are based on what we and/or others have done previously. These might have worked in the past but in a rapidly changing world, they can be inadequate and unable to create the results we need. Leading futurist Sohail Inayatullah coined the phrase "used futures"(3) to describe the idea of borrowing a plan or desired outcome from the past and applying it to your current situation. "Used futures" don't usually work as the context and conditions where they were originally applied will have changed.
Rather than focusing on old applications and re-used solutions, foresight brings with it the opportunity to create a space for discussion and contemplation about the implications of our decisions on our futures. It is in this space we can begin to think holistically, exploring diverse perspectives and ideas that are essential to ensure our longer-term objectives are met. Thinking about implications before applications can help us to make decisions today that are better aligned with the futures we want to create.
A bias for action.
Foresight is not simply an intellectual exercise. It has to be brought to life with action. With the acceptance of Amara's third law that "future outcomes can be influenced by our choices in the present"(1) comes the responsibility to ensure that the insights generated from foresight thinking are used to create and implement actions.
This third law, that our choices and decisions in the present have an impact on our future outcomes, serves as a reminder of the power we have to shape our futures. By using foresight to sense what is coming next, we bring those far-off possibilities ‘closer in’ and drastically improve our decision-making. We gain insight into potential emerging change, trends and their development paths, better prepare for potential opportunities and challenges, and use this knowledge to act in ways that minimise the impact of less ideal outcomes.
At its core, a bias for action is about choice. This choice is about choosing to do some things, and also choosing not to do others. In this context inaction is also an action, if it is a choice. Both the act of doing, and not doing, have implications for our futures. Action creates momentum and makes us accountable to ourselves as well as others for the outcomes of our choices.
Rather than leaving our futures to chance, foresight encourages us to be proactive in creating the futures we want through our choices. The best action plans will not prescribe a defined path, with no room for flexibility. Instead, they should be more like a playbook that proposes a suite of actions that can be implemented as a range of futures appear. Action playbooks support agile and adaptive planning, enabling plans to shift quickly as new information emerges or contexts change.
The art of foresight requires us to:
become intensely curious about how change is occurring and bring more of the outside world into our decision-making;
think as much about the implications of change as the application of immediate solutions;
having considered what tomorrow could look like, use this thinking to take action today.
Foresight now becomes a tool for making sense of the changing world around us, for shaping the futures we would like to see and for hedging against uncertainties that may emerge.
To sense, shape and hedge futures.
Sense, shape and hedge are the domains of action that foresight nurtures. These domains require an ability to think deeply, broadly and differently about what might happen next.
Sense - understanding change.
Foresight helps us to gain a nuanced understanding of the dynamics that are shaping our futures. This allows us to consider what kinds of outcomes could emerge from the current state of flux and how this could impact individuals, organisations or societies as a whole over time. We can then begin to think more deeply about how best to respond in an informed and considered way.
Foresight helps us to expand our knowledge base, it helps us become intensely curious and encourages us to explore the world around us looking for new and useful insights.
Shape - creating futures.
Having sensed the possible outcomes of current dynamics, foresight encourages us to both envision and create desired futures. We may be able to identify existing paths that lead towards the futures we want or develop entirely new approaches.
Foresight helps to break open the limits of our thinking, allowing for more creative solutions and a greater capacity for impactful change. Furthermore, it can assist in charting out realistic action plans that help our preferred
futures become reality.
Hedge - mitigating uncertainty.
Finally, foresight helps us to respond to uncertainty. With a better understanding of the current environment and potential futures, we can be more prepared for any surprises that may come our way. We can use this information to create adaptive strategies and plans to mitigate risk and manage uncertainty. The ultimate strength of foresight is not in prediction (an impossible goal!), but in the knowledge it provides us to prepare for and respond to potential eventualities coming our way. Preparedness for change is a key to success in an unpredictable world.
Foresight - an invaluable tool.
When it comes to planning for our futures, foresight is an invaluable tool that can help us sense, shape and hedge the possibilities that lay ahead. By engaging with foresight practices, we can gain insight into current dynamics and possible outcomes, support the creation of desired futures, and be more prepared for uncertainties heading our way.
Foresight encourages creative solutions and and meaningful, long-term planning. It also allows us to break free from old, used, restrictive patterns of thinking and chart out agile and adaptive action plans.
The use of foresight allows us to move beyond simple reactionary responses and instead confidently explore the potential of our futures. By taking the time to consider the futures emerging today, we can be better prepared for what might happen next.
The result? A better understanding of the world and its possibilities, enabling us to support futures that are both desirable and achievable, and be better prepared for surprises.
So how does business use foresight? Visit insightandforesight.com.au and check out edition 23.3 of the delta∆effect.
References:
(1) Amara, R. (1981), ‘The Futures Field: Searching for Definitions and Boundaries’, The Futurist, 15(1):25-29.
(2) “Prospection.” Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary, Merriam-Webster, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/prospection. Accessed 22 Aug. 2023.
(3)Inayatullah, S (2006), 'Anticipatory action learning: theory and practice', Futures, vol. 38, no. 6, pp. 656-666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.10.003
