Informed Uncertainty: Balancing Knowing and Not-Knowing.

In the shifting landscapes of business and innovation, informed uncertainty emerges as a critical competency for today's leaders. It's that charged space where foresight becomes as valuable as insight, where the boundaries of the known blur into the realms of the unknown. For entrepreneurs, innovators, and leaders, this duality of knowing and not-knowing can be a powerful tool, allowing them to adapt and stay ahead in an ever-changing environment.

Informed uncertainty is about being open to new possibilities, while also being informed enough to make rational decisions. It's finding the balance between embracing the unknown and using existing knowledge and resources to navigate it. This mindset requires a combination of creativity, critical thinking, and a willingness to be both certain and uncertain simultaneously.

Certainty AND Uncertainty.

Imagine standing at the precipice where on one side lies solid ground—the data, the experience, and the predictable patterns. Yet, just a step away, there's the abyss of unpredictability, complex systems, and potential disruptions that are part and parcel of our globally connected world.

We're talking about informed uncertainty—a concept that may initially appear oxymoronic, but in essence, captures the essence of today's world. It’s about harnessing the power of what we know, while boldly probing the depths of the unknown.

Informed uncertainty is not about abandoning all knowledge and blindly taking risks. Rather, it's about using knowledge as a foundation to build upon, while still being open to new information and perspectives. It requires a willingness to question assumptions and challenge conventional thinking, all while keeping an eye on the bigger picture.

In February 1936 “Esquire” magazine published F. Scott Fitzgerald’s essay “The Crack-Up” in which Fitzgerald stated:

"the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function."

This quote perfectly captures the essence of informed uncertainty. It's about being able to hold onto what we know, while also being open to the possibility of new ideas and information that may challenge our existing knowledge. It's also about being comfortable with saying "I don't know" and still maintain the confidence to make decisions and lead the way.

In today's rapidly changing world, where adaptivity is key to success, this mindset is crucial. By embracing informed uncertainty, individuals and organisations can improve their ability to navigate through the unknown with more confidence and greater reliability. It allows for the exploration of new ideas, the acknowledgement of failure as a learning opportunity, and the ability to pivot and adapt when things change.

The Art and Science of Foresight.

Now, you might wonder, how does one practice informed uncertainty? It starts with accepting that not all variables in the business landscape can be controlled or predicted. But this isn't about throwing strategy out the window—it's quite the opposite.

It’s about becoming comfortable with a certain level of ambiguity and learning to adapt swiftly. When we gather data, engage in longer term thinking, and explore emerging change and trends, we're tapping into the science of foresight. We're arming ourselves with the information needed to anticipate trends, needs, and challenges.

However, the art comes into play in the interpretation—making intuitive leaps, identifying undercurrents, foreseeing implications and staying open to change. This requires a certain level of creativity and imagination, as well as the courage to trust these intuitions and act upon them.

Foresight is not about possessing a crystal ball, but rather about developing a mindset of continuous learning and exploration. It's understanding that the landscape will shift in ways we cannot predict, but for which we can prepare. Our ability to embrace this uncertainty is what allows us to stay confident and reliable in an ever-evolving world.

Balancing the art and science of foresight is the key to navigating uncertainty with greater confidence and increased reliability. Its about moving from a plan to a playbook, from prediction to preparation. With this approach, individuals and organisations can stay ahead of the curve, seize opportunities, and weather any storms that may arise.

Thinking in Systems.

We live, work and play in systems. Our world is composed of systems, from the smallest organisms to countries and even the entire planet. Everything is interconnected and one action can have ripple effects across multiple systems. In order to truly understand the complexity of our world, we must learn to think in terms of systems.

Thinking in systems allows us to see patterns and relationships among different elements within a system. It helps us identify the root causes of problems and find effective solutions. By understanding how systems function, we can anticipate potential consequences and make proactive decisions. This is especially important in a rapidly changing world where traditional linear thinking may no longer be effective.

In order to cultivate this skill, we must first acknowledge that everything is connected and there are no isolated events or actions. We must also learn to identify feedback loops and use this information to our advantage. This will enable us to make better decisions and become more reliable in navigating uncertainty. Additionally, we must be willing to constantly learn and adapt as systems are dynamic and constantly evolving.

For instance, consider how the rise of remote work has transformed not just office culture but has rippled into real estate, city planning, and even the environment. Those adept in informed uncertainty understand these connections and use them to guide their decisions. They also remain open to feedback and course-correct when necessary. This adaptability and flexibility are vital to thrive in today's ever-changing landscape.

Leaders who succeed in the realm of informed uncertainty are those who fuse knowledge with an appetite for the unknown. They embrace potential disruption, rather than fearing it, and use it to drive growth and progress. They also understand the importance of collaboration and seek out diverse perspectives to gain a holistic understanding of complex systems. This allows them to adapt as the world around them changes and come up with solutions that can lead their organisations to success.

Moreover, the ability to navigate informed uncertainty is not just limited to top-level leaders but is a valuable skill for everyone. In an increasingly interconnected world, our actions and decisions have a ripple effect on others and the world around us. By being aware of these connections and understanding how systems function, we can make more informed and responsible choices. This not only benefits ourselves but also contributes to creating a better world for everyone.

Embracing informed uncertainty is essential in today's rapidly changing world. It requires a combination of knowledge, adaptability, and collaboration to navigate through complex systems and make informed decisions. By continuously learning and being open to new perspectives, we can turn uncertain situations into opportunities for growth and progress.