The Futures Triangle
Updated 06/06/24
Video Transcript
The Futures Triangle is a tool developed by Dr Sohail Inayatullah in 2008 that leaders can use to create a frame from within which to view the current forces at work on the organisation's planning and decision making for impact and future growth. It's a great place to start a foresight project as it can bring to life the different forces at play.
The Futures Triangle is an excellent tool to map the gap that exists between your vision and your planning and decision making. These gaps exist and are probably holding your organisation back. Let's take a look at what I mean.
First let's get to know the tool. The Futures Triangle is a framework for thinking about the future created by three distinct variables.
The first is the pull of the future which is the dominant vision that your organisation has of what the future could look like. This is the aspirational story you tell about the world you want to create and the role your organisation will play in its achievement. This corner is the visual corner.
The second is current data points and issues that are pushing the organisation towards the future. These are tangible, measurable data points. Chances are these are contained in your annual operational plan as knowledge and assumptions shaping your activities and targets. This corner contains quantitative data.
The third variable is the weight of the past. These are the things holding your organisation back, resisting progress towards your future vision. The personalities, cultural quirks, egos, traditions, legacies that your organisation is holding onto. This is the qualitative corner.
By gaining insights into these three corners of the futures triangle you can create a simple framework from which to start thinking about the futures that might manifest for your organisation, and the links between your planning and decision making and the progress towards your organisational vision.
The Futures Triangle is a tool that leaders can use to map the gap between vision and plan.
Let's take a look at how Inayatullah, fellow futurist Ivana Milojević and other authors have developed the futures triangle for use with planning
To extend the model we can add in a number of scenarios that allow us to track paths of change projecting from the push of the future.
In the futures triangle we can show a number of possible change paths:
A no change path indicating the weight of the past has stopped any change.
A back to the past change path that could exist if the weight of the past impacted in a such as way as to take the organisation backwards.
A marginal change path.
An adaptive change path.
And a radical change path.
These paths also have types of change behaviour associated with them.
Reactionary behaviour.
Traditionalist or Conservative behaviour driving no or marginal change.
Reformist or Pragmatic behaviour supporting marginal to adaptive change.
Progressive behaviour supporting adaptive to radical change.
Visionary and revolutionary behaviour supporting radical and greater levels of change.
Take a look at the futures triangle with the change paths and supporting behaviours added and ask yourself 2 questions:
In order to reach your mission/vision what change path do you think your organisation needs to track to over the next 5-20 years?
Put a mental dot on the change path you have selected on the model to my right.
Now thinking about the last few years of your organisation history, the plans and decisions and results that have occurred, what change path do you think your organisation is actually on?
You have now started the process to map the gap that exists between the vision you want to deliver and the path your planning and decision making is tracking to.
Are you surprised by the results?
When you look at the change paths you selected do the supporting behaviours align with the planning and decision making styles of the people involved?
Chances are your vision to change the world requires radical change, - visions like curing cancer, stopping climate change, eradicating poverty, minimising the impact of poor mental health require massive change, yet most organisation's planning and decision making delivers progress along the no or marginal change path. Quite often moments of adaptive or radical change are unplanned and the result of unexpected external forces.
It makes sense that in times of great uncertainty and ambiguity exhibiting traditionalist or conservative behaviours is seen as sensible and low risk. Many leaders operate with a short term mindset rather than focusing on long-term results because of the pressure from stakeholders to deliver strong near-term results. In some cases short term financial targets are weighted too heavily over longer term targets like mission delivery.
The Futures Triangle is a tool that can help you map the gap between vision and performance and start the process of using foresight to support your planning and decisions making for impact and future growth.
If you're a leader and want to know how your organisation can make more progress in the long term, take a look at The Futures Triangle. This tool will help you map the gap between where your organisation is now and where it needs to go. Not only does this process provide insights into what needs to change from an organisational perspective but also for individuals who are making decisions that impact the progress towards your vision.
insight & foresight is here to support you. Message me today or visit our website at insight & foresight
Have a great day.
References
Inayatullah, S. (2008) “Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming” foresight journal, VOL. 10 NO. 1 2008, pp. 4-21
Fergnani, Alessandro. (2019) “Futures Triangle 2.0: integrating the Futures Triangle with Scenario Planning.” foresight journal VOL.22 2019: pp178-188.
Milojević, Ivana. Inayatullah, Sohail. (2015) "Narrative foresight", Futures, Volume 73: pp151-162.
Milojević, Ivana.(2021) "Futures Fallacies: What They Are and What We Can Do About Them" Journal of Futures Studies,Vol. 25(4): pp1–16
