How The World Changes: Slowly, Then Suddenly.
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
Hemingway, Ernest. 1926. The Sun Also Rises. New York, New York, Scribner.
A lot of change occurs in the world slowly and then suddenly. It can be difficult to recognise these changes at first, but as time passes and the intensity grows, they become more obvious.
Take, for example, the changes in technology. In recent years, our lives have become simpler and more efficient due to modern technological advancements. From smartphones to drones to robots, these inventions are changing the way we live and work. But these changes may not be apparent right away – they often occur gradually over time before suddenly reaching a tipping point.
The same can be said for societal changes as well. From gender roles to political stances, human society has moved gradually in various directions over the years before suddenly shifting course and taking a new direction.
In both cases – technological advancements and societal changes – it’s hard to predict when these sudden shifts will occur. However, by using foresight we can better prepare for the change coming our way.
The power of exponential growth.
Exponential growth is when a quantity increases over time at an ever-accelerating rate. It is the result of compounding and can be seen in nearly every corner of life from population to technology. When exponential growth occurs in our bank savings or economic growth we are often quite excited by its occurrence.
However, exponential growth can also be seen in a less appealing light. It’s not just positive changes that occur slowly and then suddenly – the same goes for negative ones as well. We have seen this with the rise of climate change, where small changes over time have led to more drastic consequences later on.
It is important to recognise the power of exponential growth and take it into account as we prepare for futures. Ultimately, things are changing around us all the time – first slowly, and then suddenly. The difference between slowly and suddenly is our level of awareness of the change occurring. By paying attention to the small signals and signs, we can better anticipate the big shifts that will come our way.
The tipping point.
Malcolm Gladwell (The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, 2000) defined a "tipping point" as "the moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point." It is the moment when something changes so significantly that it provokes a dramatic shift in behaviour or attitude.
These tipping points can happen in many different areas of our lives, from individual decisions to complex global phenomena. It’s important to understand these tipping points and how they affect us as we navigate our paths through life. Gladwell focused on social change in his book and went on to explain the characteristics of people who create, nurture and promote change starting with a small group of insiders and then progressing to awareness amongst a much larger population.
The world is always changing. We can’t predict when or how it will change, but we can observe and learn from the small changes occurring around us so that we can anticipate what might happen next. By understanding that many changes occur gradually before suddenly reaching a tipping point, we can better prepare ourselves for what might happen next.
Along with exponential growth, tipping points are a good way to understand the slow to sudden progression of change.
The ChatGPT example.
In 2023 many people became suddenly aware of the power of generative AI with the release of ChatGPT-4. OpenAi, the creators of the ChatGPT technology, was founded in 2015 and spent 8 years perfecting their AI’s ability to generate human-like language. Despite the extensive research and development, and release of versions 1 through 3, it wasn’t until 2023 that ChatGPT became widely popular with most people being completely unaware of its existence before then.
The ChatGPT example is also a good example of what can happen to change that grows exponentially. In April 2023, according to Open AI CEO Sam Altman, the research model utilised for ChatGPT has been exhausted and future developments in generative AI will require new thinking. Despite the initial, dramatic growth that often occurs, eventually, change will decelerate, due to external constraints which give way to logistic growth when the rate of growth slows down or even stops as it hits a certain threshold or limit.
How do you identify emerging change early?
The power of exponential growth and tipping points can help us to better understand the slow to sudden progression of change. However, it is not always easy to identify emerging change in advance. Here are a few tips on how you can stay ahead:
Monitor trends - Keeping an eye on change across society, technology, the economy, the environment and politics.
Keep an external focus - Monitor what’s happening in your industry or with your competitors and pay as much attention to what's happening outside your organisation as inside.
Experiment and test - Don’t be afraid to explore new ideas by running tests or trials on a small scale before rolling them out fully.
Ask questions and seek feedback - Try to get feedback from your customers and colleagues, ask questions, and remain intensely curious about the world around you.
By paying attention to the signs of emerging change and being prepared for both slow and sudden shifts, we can better anticipate new opportunities and be ready to take advantage of them.
The power of weak signals.
Weak signals are subtle signs that indicate the potential for major change. They often fly under the radar and can be easily missed. Weak signals should not be ignored as they may provide early warning of a tipping point, especially when multiple weak signals are identified in the same area.
To identify weak signals, we need to look at things from different perspectives and pay attention to trends that may be developing in the background. This could include analysing data, analysing conversations on social media and other platforms, or observing changes in customer behaviour. In addition, looking at current events through a lens of history might provide new insights into futures.
Weak signals can give us an early warning of potential tipping points and help us to anticipate change before it happens. If weak signals experience exponential growth, their rate of change and impact could result in the appearance of a large opportunity or challenge. By monitoring weak signals, we can be better prepared and increase our chances of capitalising on emerging changes.
Examples of weak signals in the world today.
In April 2023 some weak signals (Source: Futures Platform) that we may want to keep an eye on are:
Nanomagnetic computing is a type of technology that uses very small magnets to create and use information. It can make computers work better and use less energy. The magnets can also help with artificial intelligence, which is getting more popular faster and faster. Nanomagnetic computing could save lots of energy and be more efficient to power energy-hungry artificial intelligence. It could be up to 100,000 times more efficient than other ways of computing. Nanomagnetic computing is a new technology that shows untapped potential, but it might be helpful in the future.
Metafabric is a pioneering smart textile that can generate heat and reflect light. This cutting-edge cooling fabric could be an incredible step towards developing efficient individualised heating solutions, as well as help in combating climate change by minimising the necessity for air conditioning units. In 2020, scientists trialled a revolutionary metafabric developed with minuscule particles of Teflon and titanium dioxide which enabled the wearer to stay over five degrees Celsius colder in direct sunlight than usual cotton apparel. Metafabric has potential utility for multiple purposes, such as fashion design, cooling consumer goods during shipping and transportation of items that need temperature-controlled conditions.
Participatory budgeting is a revolutionary approach to democratic decision-making and resource allocation, providing community members with an unparalleled level of direct involvement. Participatory budgeting is a great way to enable citizens to engage in the development of their communities, as it allows for secure funding towards projects that have significant support and demand. It can also be incredibly empowering, encouraging people to join forces and work collaboratively for the greater good. Nevertheless, there are still some potential issues—it might fail to account for minority needs that don't receive enough attention or hinder progress when aiming at broader societal improvements.
The power of wild cards.
Wildcards are unexpected events or changes that can have a profound effect on our environment and how we live. Wildcards are unpredictable, making it difficult to plan for them in advance. However, they often offer the opportunity to rethink existing assumptions and create new strategies that could be beneficial both now and in our futures.
Wildcards can have a variety of impacts, from small to large. For example, natural disasters such as floods or earthquakes can cause catastrophic damage and loss of life, while technological breakthroughs can bring dramatic improvements in quality of life. They are particularly important to keep an eye on in times of rapid change and uncertainty, as they often signal the possibility of entirely new ways of doing things.
Wildcards are also a sign that we should be prepared for the unexpected and stay open to new possibilities. By monitoring changes in our environment we can anticipate wildcards and use them to our advantage, or at least prepare for any potential negative impacts. This could help us make better decisions, both now and in our futures.
Examples of wild cards in the world today.
In April 2023 some wild cards (Source: Futures Platform) that could disrupt our world are:
Global brain. As technology continues to progress, the boundaries between people and computers are quickly becoming nonexistent. The internet may soon become a worldwide cloud of interconnected brains, forming a single global brain that could revolutionize democracy by decreasing hierarchy and allowing for more open participation in decision-making processes - ultimately helping us tackle pressing international problems.
Zero energy buildings (ZEBs) have the potential to help reduce CO2 emissions and reach emission reduction goals by producing their energy every year. This is done through properly insulating or heat shielding, structuring design that optimises performance for this purpose, and using smart technology-driven controlling systems. Solar panels are typically harnessed for generating power but other alternative sources such as heat pumps may also be used. If we utilize ZEBs on a larger scale, they will certainly have a positive impact on our environment.
Data centre operations in space are emerging as a new business model, due in part to the optimal cooling conditions and reasonable access to solar energy in space. Space industrialisation necessitates increased connectivity between our planet and space, such as more advanced internet satellites. Companies have begun to conceptualise data processing in outer space which can then provide immediate results for end-users. If ultra-low power, low-latency, and inexpensive data centres are launched into orbit, they could potentially outshine earth-based centres.
Change occurs slowly, then suddenly.
As humans, we often find ourselves in a state of equilibrium for a certain amount of time before something unexpected disrupts our lives. Change rarely occurs linearly. The concepts of exponential growth and tipping points show us how change can sneak up on us over time and shift our reality quickly.
Identifying points of emerging change that are starting to appear now and could disrupt, positively or negatively, our futures is a crucial skill for the modern business leader. Accepting that multiple futures are being created at any one time and that we cannot predict what will happen next can help us better prepare for our futures and encourage more creativity when thinking about how we prepare ourselves and our businesses for the change that will come.
Building capabilities to think longer term systematically by stepping outside the status quo and embracing new ways of thinking are all necessary steps in developing a future-ready strategy. By using emerging change and trend data and understanding their potential impacts, we can create resilient and adaptive strategies to better guide our organisations through the ever-changing environment that is the world of business today.
Proactively anticipating future changes is no easy task, yet it needs to be done if businesses want to remain competitive and profitable. Change often happens gradually before reaching a tipping point and understanding what weak signals and wildcards are and how they can affect the environment can help us seize opportunities for positive change and react quicker to potential disasters. To ensure every organisation is adapting effectively to the new normal, businesses must recognise the importance of state-of-the-art approaches towards identifying future trends, such as foresight methodologies. It might feel daunting - but if this challenge is overcome, you will be in an even better position to create a successful future ready strategy that has both agility and anticipation embedded within it.
The Futures Platform™.
insight & foresight uses the Futures Platform as our source of emerging change and trend data. The Futures Platform' academically trained futurists, supported by cutting-edge AI and tech, capture and aggregate signals, trends, weak signals and wildcards from all over the world. The Futures Platform data enables our clients to both understand what is happening now but also anticipate emerging changes and identify potential opportunities or threats in their futures.
Contact insight & foresight today to access the Futures Platform data and start getting ready for what happens next.
