Knowledge Base: A Generic Foresight Process Framework by Joseph Voros.
Citation: Voros, Joseph. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight. 5. 10-21. 10.1108/14636680310698379.
Link to Paper: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235308871_A_generic_foresight_process_framework
Scroll down or click on a question to explore the work:
What is the generic foresight process framework?
What are the origins of the generic foresight process framework?
What are the benefits of the generic foresight process framework?
Why should a staged approach to foresight be used?
What is the role of foresight in strategy?
What are five categories of alternative futures?
How does the generic foresight process framework work as a diagnostic tool?
How does the generic foresight process framework work as a design tool?
What is the difference between strategic thinking, strategy development and strategic planning?
Quick Summary.
This paper outlines a generic foresight process framework developed by Joseph Voros, aimed at integrating foresight into strategic planning within organisations. The framework, based on the work of Mintzberg, Horton, and Slaughter (and others) was implemented at Swinburne University of Technology to enhance long-term strategic planning. It consists of four key phases: Inputs, Foresight, Outputs, and Strategy, each with distinct activities and methodologies.
The paper details the organisational context at Swinburne, where foresight was introduced both as an academic discipline through the Australian Foresight Institute and as a practical tool within the university's strategic planning processes. The implementation followed a staged approach, emphasising education first to build a shared vocabulary and understanding, followed by the introduction of foresight methodologies.
The generic foresight framework serves multiple purposes: clarifying the distinctions between strategic thinking, strategy development, and strategic planning; diagnosing existing processes; and designing new foresight processes. It highlights the importance of foresight in expanding perceptions of strategic options and ensuring that strategy development is informed by a comprehensive understanding of potential futures.
The paper also discusses the utility of different types of futures (potential, possible, plausible, probable, and preferable) and the role of wildcards in scenario planning. It concludes with reflections on the practical application of the framework and its contribution to the ongoing development of foresight as a professional discipline.
What is the generic foresight process framework?
Voros' generic foresight process framework consists of four key phases: Inputs, Foresight, Outputs, and Strategy. Each phase involves distinct activities and methodologies aimed at integrating foresight into strategic planning within organisations. Here’s a brief overview of each phase:
Inputs:
This phase involves gathering information and scanning for strategic intelligence. Techniques such as the Delphi method and environmental scanning are used to collect data from various sources. The goal is to gather a broad range of insights and ideas that can inform the foresight process.
Foresight:
This phase is divided into three sub-steps:
Analysis: Preliminary analysis of the gathered data to identify trends and patterns. The question here is "What seems to be happening?" .
Interpretation: Delving deeper into the analysis to uncover underlying structures and insights. The question here is "What's really happening?" .
Prospection: Creating forward views and exploring alternative futures. This involves scenario planning, visioning, and other methods to answer the question "What might happen? ".
Outputs:
The outputs of the foresight work include both tangible and intangible results. Tangible outputs are the range of strategic options generated, while intangible outputs are the changes in thinking and insights gained. The question here is "What could we do? ".
Strategy:
This phase involves the traditional processes of strategy development and strategic planning. The foresight outputs are used to inform decision-making and action planning. The questions here are "What will we do?" and "How will we do it? ".
The generic foresight process framework underscores the importance of distinguishing foresight from strategy to maintain clarity and maximise effectiveness. It emphasises the value of continuous feedback loops, enabling organisations to reassess and refine strategies in response to new insights and evolving conditions. By embedding foresight into the core of organisational planning, this approach strengthens the ability to anticipate and navigate future challenges and opportunities with confidence and adaptability.
What are the origins of the generic foresight process framework?
Voros' generic foresight process framework originates from a combination and reworking of ideas from three main sources:
Mintzberg's Distinction: Strategic Planning vs. Strategic Thinking. Mintzberg (1994) in "The Fall and Rise of Strategic Planning" (Harvard Business Review, vol. 72, no. 1, pp. 107-114) highlights the important distinction between strategic planning and strategic thinking. Strategic planning is analytical and focused on achieving specific goals, while strategic thinking is more intuitive and creative. Understanding this difference clarifies the roles and responsibilities within the foresight process, ensuring a balanced and effective approach.
Horton's Three-Phase Process: Inputs, Foresight, Outputs, and Actions. Horton (1999) in "A Simple Guide to Successful Foresight" (Foresight, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 5-9) presents a comprehensive three-phase approach to foresight work. Phase One focuses on gathering inputs, Phase Two centers on conducting the foresight process itself—translating and interpreting information—and Phase Three addresses outputs and subsequent actions. This framework refines and builds on Horton’s model by clearly distinguishing between the outputs of foresight activities and the actions that follow, highlighting the separate but interconnected roles of foresight and strategic implementation.
Slaughter's Methodologies: Types of Methods. Slaughter (1999) in "Futures for the Third Millennium: Enabling the Forward View" (Prospect Media, Australia) outlines a range of methodologies for strategic foresight. These include input methods, analytic methods, paradigmatic methods, as well as iterative and exploratory approaches. Each methodology plays a crucial role in shaping the detailed steps of the foresight process, offering a structured framework for envisioning futures.
By integrating these ideas, the generic foresight process framework is designed to be scalable and applicable at various levels, from individual to organisational. It provides a structured approach to foresight work, ensuring clarity in the separation of roles and responsibilities, and enhancing the strategic planning process.
What are the benefits of the generic foresight process framework?
Voros' generic foresight process framework proposes several benefits:
Clarification of Activities:
Distinguishes Roles: It clarifies the inter-relationships and distinctions between strategic thinking, strategy development, and strategic planning, helping organisational personnel understand their unique contributions and how they interconnect.
Diagnostic Tool:
Identifies Gaps: The framework can be used to diagnose where and how certain approaches to foresight and strategy work may need improvement or refinement.
Evaluates Processes: It helps in understanding and evaluating the manner by which different methodologies may be combined, ensuring a comprehensive approach to foresight.
Design Aid:
Customisable: The framework serves as a design aid for creating customised foresight projects and processes tailored to specific organisational circumstances.
Flexible Methodologies: It allows for the integration of various methodologies, ensuring that the foresight process is relevant and effective for the organisation's unique needs.
Enhanced Strategic Planning:
Informed Decisions: By providing expanded perceptions of strategic options, the framework enriches and enhances the context within which strategy is developed, planned, and executed.
Long-Term Perspective: It introduces a longer-term perspective into existing planning processes, encouraging the organisation to think beyond short-term goals.
Organisational Capacity Building:
Sustainable Integration: The framework aims to make foresight a permanent, continuous part of all planning at all levels of the organisation, rather than a separate or episodic activity.
Widespread Adoption: It encourages widespread adoption of foresight practices, leading to a more resilient and forward-thinking organisation.
Strategic Conversations:
Enhanced Dialogue: The framework fosters strategic conversations by raising awareness of futures-related issues and encouraging discussions about potential future scenarios.
Shared Vocabulary: It helps create a shared vocabulary for thinking and speaking about the future, facilitating better communication and collaboration.
Practical Utility:
Balancing Theory and Practice: The framework balances rigorous intellectual discipline with practical utility, ensuring that foresight processes are both theoretically sound and practically applicable within the organisation's strategic context.
Real-World Application: It is grounded in real-world practical experience, making it a useful tool for practitioners working in various organisational settings.
In essence, the generic foresight process framework offers a structured, adaptable, and effective method for embedding foresight into strategic planning. It strengthens an organisation’s ability to anticipate future challenges and seize emerging opportunities with more confidence and greater clarity.
Why should a staged approach to foresight be used?
Voros argues a staged approach to foresight should be used for several key reasons:
Education and Understanding:
Preparation: The initial education phase helps prepare the ground by familiarising organisational members with foresight concepts and terminology. This creates a shared vocabulary and understanding, which is crucial for effective communication and collaboration.
De-mystification: It helps demystify foresight work, making it more accessible and less intimidating to those who may be skeptical or unfamiliar with the process.
Gradual Implementation:
Overlapping Waves: The staged approach allows different parts of the organisation to progress at their own pace, with education and methodology phases overlapping. This flexibility ensures that the implementation can be tailored to the specific needs and readiness of various units within the organisation.
Embedded Processes: By gradually introducing foresight processes, they become embedded in the organisation's strategic planning and decision-making, rather than being seen as separate or episodic activities.
Building Capacity:
Sustainable Integration: The goal is to make foresight a permanent, continuous part of all planning at all levels of the organisation. This ensures that foresight is not just a one-time effort but a sustained capability that enhances strategic thinking and planning.
Widespread Adoption: The staged approach encourages widespread adoption of foresight practices, leading to a more resilient and forward-thinking organisation.
Strategic Conversations:
Enhanced Dialogue: The education phase fosters strategic conversations by raising awareness of futures-related issues and encouraging discussions about potential future scenarios. This helps in creating a culture of strategic thinking and long-term planning.
Informed Decision-Making: With a solid foundation of foresight knowledge, the organisation can make more informed and strategic decisions, considering a broader range of possibilities and potential disruptions.
Practical Utility:
Balancing Theory and Practice: The staged approach balances rigorous intellectual discipline with practical utility, ensuring that foresight processes are both theoretically sound and practically applicable within the organisation's strategic context.
Tailored Methodologies: It allows for the introduction of various methodologies as appropriate to specific projects, ensuring that the foresight process is relevant and effective for the organisation's unique needs.
A staged approach to foresight ensures a well-prepared, gradual, and sustainable integration of foresight practices into an organisation's strategic planning, enhancing its capacity to anticipate and navigate future challenges and opportunities.
What is the role of foresight in strategy?
Voros highlights the critical role of foresight in enhancing strategic thinking by broadening perceptions and expanding the range of options available for decision-making. By helping organisations anticipate and prepare for potential future scenarios, foresight ensures that strategy development is both more informed and resilient. The key contributions of foresight to strategy, as defined by Voros, are:
Exploration of Options:
Foresight involves exploring a wide range of possible, plausible, probable, and preferable futures. This exploration helps identify various strategic options that might not be immediately apparent through traditional planning methods.
Enhanced Understanding:
By analysing and interpreting trends, patterns, and underlying structures, foresight provides deeper insights into potential future developments. This understanding helps organisations recognise emerging opportunities and threats.
Informed Decision-Making:
Foresight generates strategic intelligence that informs the strategy development process. It ensures that decisions are based on a comprehensive understanding of potential future scenarios rather than just current trends.
Strategic Conversations:
Foresight fosters strategic conversations within the organisation, creating a shared vocabulary and understanding about the future. This collaborative approach helps align different parts of the organisation towards common strategic goals.
Risk Mitigation:
By considering a wide range of future possibilities, foresight helps organisations identify and prepare for potential risks. This proactive approach reduces the likelihood of being caught off guard by unexpected events.
Innovation and Creativity:
Foresight encourages intuitive and creative thinking, which can lead to innovative strategies and solutions. It helps break free from conventional thinking and explore new ways of achieving strategic objectives.
Continuous Adaptation:
Foresight involves continuous monitoring and reassessment of the strategic environment. This ongoing process allows organisations to adapt their strategies in response to new information and changing conditions.
According to Voros, foresight plays a crucial role in shaping and strengthening the foundation of strategic development, planning, and execution. It ensures that strategic planning goes beyond merely reacting to current trends, enabling organisations to proactively influence and shape futures.
What are five categories of alternative futures?
To enhance the reader's foresight knowledge Voros defines five categories of alternative futures as:
Potential Futures:
Definition: Encompasses all possible futures, including those beyond our current imagination.
Characteristics: This is the broadest category, containing an infinite variety of potential outcomes, some of which we cannot even conceive of today.
Possible Futures:
Definition: Futures that might happen, regardless of how far-fetched or unlikely they may seem.
Characteristics: These futures may involve knowledge or technologies that we do not yet possess and could even transgress currently accepted physical laws or principles.
Plausible Futures:
Definition: Futures that could happen based on our current understanding of how the world works.
Characteristics: These are grounded in our existing knowledge of physical laws, processes, and systems of human interaction. They are considered reasonable and within the realm of possibility given our current understanding.
Probable Futures:
Definition: Futures that are likely to happen, often based on the continuation of current trends.
Characteristics: This category includes the most likely outcomes, such as the "business-as-usual" scenario, which is a linear extension of the present into a range of futures. However, it is important to note that trends can change, and new trends can emerge unexpectedly.
Preferable Futures:
Definition: Futures that we want to happen, based on our values and desires.
Characteristics: These are subjective and value-driven, reflecting what different individuals or groups consider to be the best or most desirable outcomes. This category is often explored in visioning workshops where participants create scenarios based on their preferred future states.
These categories help in clarifying the types of futures being considered in foresight exercises and ensure that a wide range of possibilities is explored, from the most imaginative to the most likely and desirable.
What are wildcard events?
Voros defines wildcard events as low-probability, high-impact occurrences that can significantly alter the course of alternative futures. Here are the key characteristics and uses of wildcard events:
Wildcard Definition:
Low Probability: Wildcard events are considered unlikely to happen.
High Impact: Despite their low probability, if they do occur, they have the potential to cause significant and often disruptive changes.
Wildcard Examples:
Natural disasters (e.g., major earthquakes, volcanic eruptions)
Technological breakthroughs (e.g., the invention of a new energy source)
Political upheavals (e.g., sudden regime changes, unexpected wars)
Economic shocks (e.g., sudden market crashes, hyperinflation)
Pandemics (e.g., the COVID-19 outbreak)
Purpose in Foresight:
Boundary-Spanning: Wildcards help to push the boundaries of conventional thinking and encourage consideration of a wider range of possibilities.
Scenario Planning: They are often used in scenario planning exercises to test the robustness of strategies and plans against unexpected disruptions.
Strategic Flexibility: By considering wildcard events, organisations can develop more flexible and resilient strategies that are better prepared for unforeseen changes.
Method of Use:
In Workshops: Participants may draw wildcard events randomly and then assess how these events would impact their scenarios or strategies.
Stimulating Creativity: The introduction of wildcards can stimulate creative thinking and help uncover vulnerabilities or opportunities that might not be apparent under normal circumstances.
Impact on Strategy:
Highlighting Weaknesses: Wildcards can reveal weaknesses in current strategies, prompting the development of contingency plans.
Exploring Opportunities: They can also highlight potential opportunities that could be leveraged if such events were to occur.
Voros sees wildcard events as a valuable tool in foresight and strategic planning, helping organisations to prepare for and adapt to unexpected and potentially transformative changes.
How does the generic foresight process framework work as a diagnostic tool?
The generic foresight process framework functions as a diagnostic tool by helping organisations evaluate and improve their strategic processes. Here’s how Voros proposes it could work:
Identifying Gaps and Weaknesses:
The framework allows organisations to assess their current strategic processes by comparing them against the ideal foresight process. This helps identify gaps, weaknesses, and areas that need improvement.
Clarifying Processes:
By breaking down the foresight process into distinct phases (Inputs, Foresight Work, Outputs, and Strategy), the framework clarifies the different activities involved. This helps organisations understand where their processes might be lacking or misaligned.
Evaluating Depth and Breadth:
The framework can diagnose whether an organisation’s foresight process is too shallow or narrow. For example, it can reveal if the organisation is only conducting surface-level trend analysis without deeper interpretation or forward-looking prospection.
Assessing Integration:
It helps evaluate how well foresight activities are integrated into the overall strategic planning process. This includes checking if the insights generated from foresight work are effectively feeding into strategy development and planning.
Highlighting Reactive vs. Proactive Approaches:
The framework can illustrate whether an organisation is being purely reactive to environmental changes or if it is proactively using foresight to anticipate and shape future scenarios. This distinction is crucial for long-term strategic success.
Facilitating Strategic Conversations:
By providing a common language and structure, the framework facilitates strategic conversations within the organisation. This helps in diagnosing misunderstandings or misalignments in strategic thinking and planning.
Benchmarking:
Organisations can use the framework to benchmark their foresight and strategic planning processes against best practices. This helps in setting standards and goals for improvement.
Continuous Improvement:
The diagnostic use of the framework encourages continuous monitoring and reassessment of strategic processes. This ongoing evaluation helps organisations make necessary adjustments and improvements over time.
Voros positions the generic foresight process framework as a diagnostic tool by providing a structured approach to evaluate and improve strategic processes. It helps organisations identify gaps, clarify processes, assess integration, and ensure a proactive approach to strategic planning.
How does the generic foresight process framework work as a design tool?
The generic foresight process framework can be used as a design tool to create customised foresight processes, interventions, or projects tailored to specific organisational needs. Here’s how Voros views it can be applied:
Framework Customisation:
The generic foresight framework provides a flexible structure that can be adapted to different contexts. By understanding the four key elements (Inputs, Foresight Work, Outputs, and Strategy), organisations can design processes that fit their unique circumstances.
Methodology Selection:
The framework helps in selecting appropriate methodologies for each phase of the foresight process. For example, different techniques can be chosen for gathering inputs (e.g., Delphi method, environmental scanning), conducting foresight work (e.g., trend analysis, causal layered analysis), generating outputs (e.g., workshops, reports), and integrating into strategy (e.g., strategic planning sessions).
Process Design:
Organisations can use the framework to design specific foresight processes by mapping out the flow from inputs to strategy. This involves determining the sequence of activities, the tools and techniques to be used, and the expected outcomes at each step.
Integration with Existing Processes:
The framework can be used to integrate foresight activities with existing strategic planning processes. This ensures that foresight is not a separate, episodic activity but a continuous and embedded part of the organisation’s strategic approach.
Scalability:
The framework is scalable and can be applied at various levels, from individual projects to organisational-wide initiatives. This allows for the design of foresight processes that are appropriate for different scales and scopes.
Feedback Loops:
The framework emphasises the importance of feedback loops, ensuring that insights from foresight activities are continuously fed back into the strategic process. This helps in making ongoing adjustments and improvements.
Creative Approaches:
The framework encourages the use of creative and innovative approaches to presenting foresight outputs. For example, using immersive experiences, role-plays, magazines or multimedia presentations to engage stakeholders and communicate insights effectively.
Evaluation and Improvement:
By using the framework as a design tool, organisations can evaluate the effectiveness of their foresight processes and make necessary adjustments. This iterative approach ensures continuous improvement and relevance.
The generic foresight process framework can be used as a design tool by providing a structured yet flexible approach to creating customised foresight processes. It helps in selecting appropriate methodologies, integrating foresight with existing processes, ensuring scalability, incorporating feedback loops, and using creative approaches to engage stakeholders. This leads to more effective and tailored foresight interventions that meet the specific needs of the organisation.
What is the difference between strategic thinking, strategy development and strategic planning?
In Voros’ view the differences between strategic thinking, strategy development, and strategic planning are essential to understand as they each play distinct roles in the overall strategic process:
Strategic Thinking:
Nature: Intuitive, creative, and exploratory.
Focus: Generating ideas and exploring a wide range of possibilities and options for the future.
Activities: Involves synthesis, intuition, and creativity to formulate an integrated vision or perspective of where the organisation could be heading.
Purpose: To open up an expanded range of perceptions of strategic options available, making strategy-making potentially wiser.
Question: "What could we do?"
Strategy Development:
Nature: Decision-making and goal-setting.
Focus: Assessing options, examining choices, and making decisions about the direction the organisation should take.
Activities: Involves setting goals, objectives, or destinations based on the insights generated from strategic thinking.
Purpose: To create a clear and actionable strategy that directs the organisation towards its desired future.
Question: "What will we do?"
Strategic Planning:
Nature: Analytical, logical, and pragmatic.
Focus: Breaking down the strategy into actionable steps and formalising those steps for implementation.
Activities: Involves detailed planning, resource allocation, and articulating the anticipated consequences or results of each step.
Purpose: To ensure that the strategy is implemented effectively and that the organisation stays on track to achieve its goals.
Question: "How will we do it?"
This paper defines strategic thinking as the process of exploring and generating options, strategy development as the act of making decisions and setting clear directions, and strategic planning as the execution of those decisions through detailed plans and actions. Each of these activities demands a distinct approach to thinking, and together they form the foundation for effectively navigating the strategic landscape.
