futures insights: Social Ranking Systems.
futures insights: by insight & foresight looks at trends, weak signals, and emerging change that could impact for-purpose organisations 5 to 10 years from now. The content is design fiction written from a futures viewpoint about possibilities that may or may not eventuate and should not be read as fact. It is designed to support creative, exploratory thinking about futures and what might happen next. Enjoy!
In world not far away...
Edward had had a tough life. He grew up in a home devastated by poverty and was now homeless. Since 2037 every action he took, every interaction he had, and every movement he made were all reduced to a single rating on a five-point scale. A higher rating opened the door to fabulous opportunities and special benefits, while a low rating could, essentially, keep him shut off from the rest of society. Because of his background and circumstances, he had never scored higher than one and therefore struggled, even more, to get his life back on track.
With his social ranking placing significant blockages on Edward's ability to improve his circumstances, social worker Priia was assigned to help Edward out. It was not just a matter of providing relief services like money, counseling, and a house to Edward anymore. To change his trajectory Priia had to work one on one with Edward to look at the actions he took and see how they could add value to his social ranking score.
Since the introduction of a cashless economy in 2028 Edward received a welfare debit card that enabled him to access the goods and services he needed. Whilst this provided Edward with more flexibility it also impacted on his social ranking score. The cashless debit card tracked all Edward’s purchases. Cigarettes, takeaway food, and a bottle of wine which Edward brought frequently all had negative scores based on the negative impact on a person's health. Doctors visits, trips to the gym, and buying fresh food vegetables, which all had positive scores, were harder for Edward to commit to. He had dreams of becoming a barista and working in a cafe but he knew he needed a social score of at least 2.5 to even be considered for those roles.
How did we get here?
At the birth of a child, a social ranking score of 5 was automatically allocated. Throughout a person's life, the social score would fluctuate based on the combined scores of daily decisions a person made. Everything was tracked - purchases of goods and services, places visited, awards received, crimes committed, breaches of trust, social media comments and actions, education, friend networks - the lot - everything was given a positive or negative score based on a master list updated by the Department of Social Improvement.
People often chose their friends and partners based on their social ranking scores to maximise their opportunities and social benefits. The most popular dating app in 2045 is 'Perfect Pair' which used an algorithm to match people based on their social ranking scores and life goals. Anywhere that controls entry via tickets or access points uses some form of social ranking to enable or refuse entry - sporting matches, nightclubs, concerts - all control access to ensure their audience matches their desired profile.
The introduction of social ranking systems has changed the way people live their lives. What started as a way to judge a person's creditworthiness has morphed into a far-reaching system that monitors and judges almost every aspect of citizens' lives. In a world where social ranking score dictates your opportunities, it's more important than ever to ensure that people make the right choices to improve their score.
The negative outcomes of social ranking scores were significant. Low-scoring individuals were given second-class status and were not able to access the same opportunities, goods, and services as those with higher scores. They had difficulty getting a job, a place to live, or a loan from a bank. In some cases, they were turned away from shops and restaurants.
The social ranking system was designed to create a more efficient society by allocating resources to those who were contributing positively to society. However, it soon became apparent that the system could be unfair and biased against certain groups of people. The poor, the disabled, and minorities were disproportionately affected by the negative consequences of low social scores.
Supporters of the social ranking system argue that it is a necessary evil. They claim that, while the system may be imperfect, it is the best way to allocate resources in a society with limited resources. They also argued that the system simply made visible the reality of society. Individuals, organisations, and Governments already used a subconscious, unregulated ranking system to make decisions and that by quantifying it with a regulated scale the social score actually decreased bias and discrimination, whilst dramatically improving society as a whole.
Reflections on the past.
As a social worker, Priia's job had changed significantly. She had become an expert on the nuances of the social ranking system and how to curate a person's actions and decisions to improve their score. For clients like Edward, even with money, support and a house, without an improved social ranking score he would struggle to change his life and get the job he wanted. On the positive side, Priia was able to track where Edward was at any stage and had pre-knowledge of any issues he had before seeing him. Everything was in the data.
Priia often thinks back 10 years earlier when a significant increase in technological advancement started with the use of big data, artificial intelligence and geo-tracking. She remembers laughing with her friends about their Uber scores and how they could improve them by being extra nice to the driver or see their score drop when they fell asleep in the car on the way home from the pub. They talked about the feeling of power they had to score car-share drivers and food delivery riders based on their experience and how that score could impact the person's future job prospects. They reflected on how novel it seemed when out shopping and getting close to a retail store like Nespresso or Country Road they, as past customers, received an invite on their phone to pop into the store and see the latest products. They acknowledged they should have been more aware of the impacts of changes like the introduction of comprehensive credit scoring in Australia in 2014 had had on the development of the world they now lived in.
Over the years, all these small technological advancements, one by one, developed into the social ranking system they had today. They had made a choice many years ago to accept what had appeared today, without even knowing it.
How could the emergence of a social ranking system impact your organisation?
Acknowledgement
The identification of these emerging change concepts started with the Futures Platform™ database of trends, signals and emerging change. You can read more about the Futures Platform™ here . insight & foresight is a paying customer of the Futures Platform™ and we use the data to support our clients think and plan for their futures.
