futures insights: Universal Basic Income.
futures insights: by insight & foresight looks at trends, weak signals, and emerging change that could impact for-purpose organisations 5 to 10 years from now. The content is design fiction written from a futures viewpoint about possibilities that may or may not eventuate and should not be read as fact. It is designed to support creative, exploratory thinking about futures and what might happen next. Enjoy!
In a world just past tomorrow...
Kirana wondered what life was like before Universal Basic Income (UBI). She had always heard stories from her grandparents about how difficult it was to find a job that could support a family. They would often have to take on multiple jobs, sometimes working 16-hour days just to make ends meet. Kirana couldn't imagine living that way.
Automation and the role of robots had significantly changed the world of work. Economies could now produce the required goods and services with fewer human workers. At first, this had resulted in large-scale social problems when those without work and income grew to over 60% of the global population. Corporations grew richer as their costs reduced significantly and profits soared. There was deep social disparity and unrest almost resulting in World War 3 between rich multi-national corporations and nation-states as they fought for power and control.
In 2045 the world's leaders, corporate and political, came together and decided to implement a tax on automation and robot production with the revenue raised used to fund a Universal Basic Income. The thought was that if everyone had a basic income, they would be able to live without fear of not being able to meet their basic needs. Social harmony would improve and a more equitable world created.
It's been 5 years since Universal Basic Income was implemented and Kirana thinks it has been successful. Crime has decreased as people are not desperate to steal to feed their families. There is still some social disparity but it is not as bad as it was before. People are generally happier and have more time to pursue their interests and hobbies and live productive lives. It's a different life from the one people lived 50 years before, with less formal work, but humanity has found a way to achieve balance and prosperity.
Kirana is grateful that she lives in a world where Universal Basic Income has been implemented. She can't imagine living in a world where people have to worry about where their next meal is coming from or how they will pay their rent. Universal Basic Income has given her and everyone else a sense of security and freedom that was not possible before.
What is Universal Basic Income?
Universal Basic Income is a system where all citizens of a country or state receive a basic income from the government to meet their basic needs. This income is not tied to work or any other activity and is provided to everyone, regardless of social status or wealth. The implementation of Universal Basic Income has been debated for many years, but it was only in the past decade that it began to be taken seriously as a possible solution to the problems created by automation and robotics. During the COVID-19 pandemics of 2020 and 2021 many countries introduced payments for people unable to work due to lockdowns and as a result, the idea of Universal Basic Income was more widely discussed.
Universal Basic Income has been controversial since it was first proposed. Critics argue that it is too expensive and that it will discourage people from working. Others argue that Universal Basic Income is necessary to protect workers from the effects of automation. As more and more jobs are replaced by machines, Universal Basic Income was seen as one of the the only ways to ensure that everyone has enough money to live on.
The Global Robot Tax of 2045.
The decision to implement a Universal Basic Income in 2045 was made possible as a result of the Global Robot Tax. The Global Robot Tax is a tax on the production output of robots. The idea behind a Global Robot Tax was to disincentivise companies from replacing human workers with robots. By making it more expensive to use robots, companies would be incentivised to keep human workers, however, if they did decide to use more robots there would be a tax imposed that would be used to fund social programs that addressed the issues created by less work for humans. This would help to protect jobs and reduce inequality.
The Global Robot Tax also rebalanced the revenue power mix between corporations and nation-states. Fewer human workers paying income tax had significantly reduced taxation revenue for all governments. On the flip side, corporations had benefited from increased production and profits from automation and robotics without a corresponding increase in taxation. The Global Robot Tax rebalanced the wealth and power distribution between corporations and governments and led to the de-escalation of the threat of World War 3.
How did Universal Basic Income impact social services?
The introduction of Universal Basic Income has had a positive impact on social services. With more people receiving a basic income from the government, social services can be provided at a lower cost to taxpayers. As an example, the need for unemployment benefits has been removed and replaced by the Universal Basic Income. This allows for more money to be spent on other important services, such as healthcare and education. It also helps to reduce inequality, as all citizens receive the same basic income, regardless of social status or wealth.
Interesting side effects?
Two interesting side effects occurred when the Universal Basic Income was introduced. Firstly, charitable donations have increased as many wealthy citizens now donate part of all of the income they receive from the Universal Basic Income to charities. In many wealthy communities, this is seen as a "must-do" with social pressure applied to those who don't. Secondly, there has been a dramatic increase in the numbers of artists and people exploring creative paths as some people chose to live a life devoted to creativity and expression supported by their Universal Basic Income. This has matched the increase in demand for music and performances as people with more free time seek out the creative arts to fill their days.
How does the story end for Kirana?
Kirana is grateful that she lives in a world where Universal Basic Income has been implemented. She can't imagine living in a world where people have to worry about where their next meal is coming from or how they will pay their rent. Universal Basic Income has given her and everyone else a sense of security and freedom that was not possible before.
How could the emergence of a Universal Basic Income impact your organisation?
Acknowledgement
The identification of these emerging change concepts started with the Futures Platform™ database of trends, signals and emerging change. You can read more about the Futures Platform™ here . insight & foresight is a paying customer of the Futures Platform™ and we use the data to support our clients think and plan for their futures.
