In a world that's rapidly transforming, the capacity to anticipate and shape our futures is more crucial than ever. insight & foresight's Icons of Futures Thinking promotes five core methods that can help us not only navigate the complex landscapes ahead but also redefine them. Our icons are the Futures Triangle, Two x Two Matrix, Three Horizons, Four Archetypes and the Futures Wheel, each representing a unique approach to understanding and shaping futures.

Join us as we explore each of these icons in detail and understand how they can help us create dynamic, fresh futures, grounded in proven foresight methods.

*Five icons of futures thinking - Futures Triangle, Two x Two, Three Horizons, Four Archetypes, Futures Wheel*

Why Define Icons?

The academic frameworks of futures thinking and foresight have been building for over half a century. During this period, many scholars and practitioners have proposed different models and methods for thinking about futures. These frameworks have become the foundation for the body of work known alternatively as futures thinking, foresight and/or futures studies, providing a systematic and structured approach to exploring alternative futures.

All of us think about futures, however few of us do it in a structured way. Futures thinking and foresight offer a set of tools and techniques that help individuals and organisations to better understand, anticipate, prepare, and shape their futures. These tools enable us to think beyond our current horizon to challenge assumptions, critique the status quo and explore different possibilities for our futures.

As the world becomes increasingly complex and uncertain, it has become crucial for individuals and organisations to think beyond short-term goals and consider potential future developments. This is where futures thinking comes into play - a mindset that encourages individuals to look beyond the present moment and envision, explore and engage with multiple possible futures.

Despite its rising importance, futures thinking can often seem abstract or intimidating for those unfamiliar with the field. Academic jargon, inflexible models and methods, and a lack of confidence when exploring the unfamiliar can create barriers for individuals looking to tap into their foresight abilities. This is where our Icons of Futures Thinking come in - simplified, visual representations of key concepts and ideas in futures thinking that allow (we hope!) for easier understanding and application.

Icons such as the Futures Triangle, Two x Two Matrix, Three Horizons, Four Archetypes and the Futures Wheel, in our experience, serve as accessible entry points to understanding and applying futures thinking. They provide tangible frameworks for identifying, creating and exploring different futures and the consideration of plausible disruptions and opportunities. These icons offer a common language for individuals from diverse backgrounds to engage in meaningful discussions about their futures. Individually they are powerful tools, and collectively they provide a comprehensive toolkit to challenge assumptions, critique the status quo and explore different possibilities for our futures.

We Stand on the Shoulders of Giants!

insight & foresight is not the author of any of these frameworks, we are foresight practitioners who stand on the shoulders of the original thinkers, pioneers and authors, names such as Inayatullah, Milojević, Sharpe, Schwartz, Curry, Shultz, Dator, Hines, Wack, Polack, Sardar, Sweeney et al. (just to name a few of the names that immediately come to mind from our reading!). Our objective is to demystify futures thinking and make it accessible to everyone using these icons . We hope that by promoting these icons and the key concepts behind them, we can inspire individuals and organisations to embrace their own foresight abilities and actively shape their futures.

Our Five Icons.

From our foresight work we have identified the following five Icons of Futures Thinking that we believe are essential in understanding and applying foresight.

Futures Triangle.
Two x Two Matrix.
Three Horizons.
Four Archetypes.
Futures Wheel.

Let's explore each icon further.

Icon No. 1: Futures Triangle.

Futures Triangle.

The Futures Triangle is a framework designed by Sohail Inayatullah to aid in understanding and planning for potential futures. This method involves identifying and analysing three distinct forces that influence the development of the change being explored.

Firstly, there is the "pull of futures," which encompasses the current images and visions of futures that could or should develop. These are the idealised or aspirational visions that individuals and organisations see as the ideal development of the future being explored. This pull represents the direction in which a signal or change driver is being drawn, based on emerging trends, innovations, and aspirations.

Secondly, we have the "push of the present." This factor includes the various forces, trends, catalysts, technologies, and influential individuals that are actively driving change in the present. These elements apply pressure and momentum towards certain futures, shaping the path forward through advancements, societal shifts, and the influence of thought leaders or pioneering innovations.

Lastly, the framework considers the "weights of the past." These are the historical legacies, cultural norms, institutional inertia, and existing barriers that hinder the realisation of specific futures. They represent the resistance to change, the traditions and practices that persist, which may slow down or obstruct progress towards desired futures.

By examining these three forces, the Futures Triangle provides a comprehensive approach to futures thinking. This framework encourages a holistic view, enabling decision-makers to balance aspirations, present dynamics, and past influences, thereby enhancing their readiness for the challenges and opportunities that may lie ahead.

Icon No. 2: Two x Two Matrix.

Two x Two.

The Two x Two Matrix is a popular tool used in strategic planning and decision-making. It consists of four quadrants, with each representing different perspectives or factors. In the context of futures thinking, this matrix can be used to explore the relationship between two key variables that influence future outcomes.

The 2x2 matrix was formalised in the 1990s by the consulting firm Global Business Network (GBN). GBN, known for its innovative thinking, was founded by individuals with significant expertise in strategic planning. Many of its members previously worked at Shell (Royal Dutch Shell now Shell Global), a company recognised as a pioneer in modern scenario practices. Shell's use of scenario planning allowed it to anticipate potential future developments, and GBN expanded on these ideas to help organisations navigate complex and uncertain environments effectively.

By analysing forces of change, critical uncertainties are identified that shape a future landscape. By examining the combinations of these uncertainties within the quadrants formed by the axis, scenarios are built. Each scenario presents a different plausible future state, allowing organisations to strategise and prepare for various outcomes. This process helps in understanding potential challenges and opportunities that may arise, enabling better decision-making and planning.

Over the years, the 2x2 matrix has become a popular tool in futures thinking and strategic planning, used by various organisations and industries worldwide. Its flexibility allows it to be applied to different contexts and scenarios, from business strategy to public policy development. The simplicity of its design makes it easy for individuals at all levels of an organisation to understand and utilise. As such, the 2x2 matrix continues to be a reliable framework for exploring potential futures and making strategic decisions.

Icon No. 3: Three Horizons.

Three Horizons.

The Three Horizons framework developed by Bill Sharpe is a foresight tool used to explore potential futures and create innovative responses in a structured manner. This model is built around three distinct 'horizons'.

Horizon 1 represents current plans and activities, often referred to as "business as usual." This horizon focuses on maintaining and optimizing the existing operations, ensuring they continue to deliver value in the present. It is often viewed through the eyes of a manager persona.

Horizon 3, on the other hand, encompasses the emerging changes and trends that are just beginning to appear but will become crucial in the long term. This horizon is about visionary thinking and anticipating future developments, setting the stage for revolutionary shifts in the industry. The viewpoint here is a visionary persona.

Horizon 2 serves as the transition zone for innovation experiments. It is here that businesses can actively engage in exploring new ideas and testing initiatives that may help mitigate the decline of H1 activities. Additionally, Horizon 2 is where strategies are developed to capitalise on the H3 emerging changes and trends, ensuring businesses are prepared for the future landscape. This is the space of the innovator persona.

By considering all three horizons, organisations can develop a comprehensive, long-term perspective on their business environment, identify potential disruptions early, and shape futures that align with their strategic goals. This holistic approach enables businesses to remain agile and resilient, ultimately leading to sustained success in an ever-evolving world.

Icon No. 4: Four Archetypes.

Four Archetypes.

The Four Archetypes framework was developed by James Dator in the 1970s at the University of Hawaii, Manoa. This framework provides a broader perspective on future scenarios by considering the underlying values, beliefs, and assumptions that shape our actions and decisions.

NB: we designed this icon purposely - do you see 5 white lines or 4 green stripes? It’s the spaces between the lines matter. :)

The four archetypes are: Growth, Discipline, Transformation, and Decline. Each archetype represents a different context for change and how it is approached within an organisation. By exploring these archetypes, businesses can better identify their own dominant mindset and make strategic decisions accordingly.

The Growth archetype focuses on expansion and continuous growth, often at the expense of other factors such as sustainability or social responsibility. In contrast, the Discipline archetype emphasises efficiency and optimisation to maintain stability in the face of change.

The Transformation archetype seeks to disrupt the status quo and create radical changes in society or business. This archetype is often associated with innovation and the adoption of new technologies.

The Decline archetype represents a regressive view towards change, where businesses may be resistant to adapt or take risks. This mindset can lead to stagnation and eventual decline if not addressed.

By understanding these archetypes, businesses can identify potential blind spots in their approach to change and future scenarios. They can also use this framework to explore different mindsets and develop strategies that are more balanced, agile, and aligned with their values.

Icon No. 5: Futures Wheel.

Futures Wheel.

The Futures Wheel was created by Jerome C. Glenn in 1971. It is a highly effective foresight tool designed to aid individuals and organisations in visually mapping out both primary and secondary impacts of a specific trend, event, or development.

The Futures Wheel process begins by identifying a central issue, placed at the heart of the wheel. This issue could range from adopting new technology to a significant policy shift or an emerging market trend. Extending from this central point are the direct, or 'first-order,' implications—immediate effects anticipated as a direct consequence of the central issue.

As we move further away from the centre, the wheel branches out into second-order impacts, which are the potential consequences that arise as a result of the first-order impacts. This branching process can continue, revealing third-order, fourth-order, and even more distant ripples. This mechanism allows for an exploration of ripple effects, unveiling potentially overlooked consequences that could manifest over time.

The Futures Wheel is a structured brainstorming technique that promotes expansive thinking. It encourages participants to consider a wide range of potential impacts and interactions, prompting them to think beyond the obvious and anticipate a variety of possible outcomes. This is particularly useful in assessing the potential impacts of decisions within an organisation, as it provides a systematic approach for highlighting unanticipated side effects of emerging changes.

Icon Summary.

Check out all the icons in the image gallery below.

What's Behind Our Thinking?

In defining a list of icons of foresight, we have only scratched the surface of the multitude of tools and methods available. In creating such a list we acknowledge we leave ourselves open to critique about what we did not include or that our rationale for inclusion lacks robustness or validity. Our list is based on insight & foresight's foresight work to date and the tools and methods our clients have found most useful and practical. Our experience has shown us that these five icons allow for easy access to foresight theory so that we can move quickly from frameworks to thinking to actions. Whilst many of our clients are building new capability and capacity for their foresight work and are at the early stages of their foresight journey, even our clients with more mature foresight capabilities find these icons refresh and re-engage their thinking and conversations.

Each icon serves a different purpose and can be used individually or together to support futures thinking and foresight work. These icons are not meant to be rigid frameworks nor deliver definitive answers. Rather, they serve as guides for thinking about futures, highlighting potential blind spots, uncovering hidden assumptions, and sparking expansive thinking. By combining a range of different tools, methods and approaches, individuals and organisations can develop a well-rounded understanding of potential futures and make more informed decisions.

It is important to note is that these icons are not meant to predict futures in anyway but rather provide a framework for exploring possibilities and potential pathways. Our work aligns with Amara's 3 Laws of Futures - 1. we cannot predict futures, 2. our futures are not predetermined and 3. we can influence what futures emerge. The third law in particular focuses us on using foresight as a framework for action. It was we DO with our foresight thinking that makes all the difference.

The key to effective foresight is not about having all the answers; it's about asking the right questions, considering multiple perspectives, and being open to new ideas. It requires a willingness to challenge assumptions, think critically, and continuously adapt and evolve as new information emerges.

Through incorporating these foresight icons into your thinking process, you can cultivate a forward focused mindset that embraces change, anticipates disruptions, and seeks out new opportunities. By continuously refining our foresight capabilities, we all can become more able to adapt to the ever-changing landscape of our world and build the necessary capabilities to thrive in a range of futures.

Foresight is a learning journey and the best way to learn is through experiencing and practicing. Therefore, we encourage you to explore these icons of foresight and discover how they can be applied in your context. If you need a hand with using them through project work, workshops or presentations insight & foresight is here to help.

A Note on Derivative Vs Novel Ideas.

As our futures are constantly evolving and changing, so too are the tools and methods used in foresight. It is important for individuals and organisations to continually explore and innovate within this field in order to stay ahead of potential disruptions and actively shape their desired futures.

Derivative ideas are those that build upon existing knowledge, concepts, and methods. They may provide incremental improvements or variations on what already exists. These ideas are important in refining and enhancing current practices. We stand on the shoulders of those who have come before us and derivative ideas allow us to respect and build upon their work.

On the other hand, novel ideas involve thinking outside of the box and approaching problems and opportunities from new and innovative angles. These ideas have the potential to disrupt traditional ways of thinking and open up new possibilities for the future.

At insight & foresight we would love to one day come up with a new novel idea, however, in the mean time, we are committed to continuously building upon existing concepts and frameworks and pushing the boundaries of the deep knowledge and experience that exists in our field. Our Icons Of Futures Thinking is just one of the examples of how we are doing this.

A Note on References.

We have tried to ensure that we have correctly referenced the original creators of each method. If we have got it wrong or you feel that we should recognise additional contributors to the work, please contact us and let us know your thoughts.

References.

Amara, R. (1981), ‘The Futures Field: Searching for Definitions and Boundaries’, The Futurist, 15(1):25-29.

Futures Triangle

Cruz, S., Moura, N. A., Lim, J. M., Bulatao, M. N. A., Aguirre, G. A., & Dela Paz, J. (2023). From Insight to Foresight: The Transformative Potential of the Futures Triangle. World Futures Review, 15(2-4), 156-169.
Inayatullah, S. (2008). “Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming” foresight journal, VOL. 10 NO. 1 2008, pp. 4-21
Inayatullah, S. (2023). The Futures Triangle: Origins and Iterations. World Futures Review, 15(2-4), 112-121.
Mulligan, V. (2023). The Futures Triangle in the Workplace - Using Strategic Foresight to Anticipate, Plan for and Respond to New Challenges in Business. World Futures Review, 15(2-4), 190-201.

Two x Two

Curry., A and Schultz, W., (2009). “Roads Less Travelled: Different Methods, Different Futures”. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(4): 35-60.
Rhydderch, Alun. (2017). Scenario Building: The 2x2 Matrix Technique.
Schwartz, P., (1996). The Art of the Long View. New York: Doubleday.
Wack, P. (1985a). “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead”. Harvard Business Review, September 1985, 73-89.
Wack, P. (1985b). “Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids”. Harvard Business Review, November 1985, 139-150.

Three Horizons

Curry, Andrew & Hodgson, Anthony. (2008). “Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy.” Journal of Futures Studies. 13.
Sharpe, Bill & Hodgson, Anthony & Leicester, Graham & Lyon, Andrew & Fazey, Ioan. (2016). “Three horizons: A pathways practice for transformation.” Ecology and Society. 21. 10.5751/ES-08388-210247.
Sharpe, B. Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope, Triarchy Press, 2013

Four Archetypes

Bezold, Clement. (2009). “Jim Dator's Alternative Futures and the Path to IAF's Aspirational Futures.” Journal of Futures Studies. 14.
Dator, James. (2009). "Alternative Futures at the Manoa School", Journal of Futures Studies, 14(2):1-18.
Hines, A. (2014) “Fun with scenario archetypes” https://www.andyhinesight.com/fun-with-scenario-archetypes/

Futures Wheel

Bengston, David N. 2015. “The futures wheel: a method for exploring the implications of social-ecological change.” Society & Natural Resources. 29(3): 374-379.
Glenn, Jerome. (2021). The Futures Wheel Chapter 6 in The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0

Icons of Futures Thinking.