Why organisations need to start thinking 5 to 10 years ahead.
"No one can predict the future. But policy-makers are forced to attempt to do so very frequently. From my experience, most decisions that affect policies, for example, are based on wholly inadequate forecasts. The problems of the present and the immediate past are generally reviewed and projected into the future, and then "planned" for. While no one can say what the future certainly will be, I am quite certain that it will not be, primarily or significantly, like the present. Thus most plans and policies for the future are made, in my judgment, on the least likely futures." - Jim Dator
Dator's quote captures perfectly one of the biggest challenges organisations face:
That the most probable futures are rarely considered in making long-term plans and decisions.
So, how do you make long-term plans and decisions?
One way that long-range planning is enhanced is through the creation of various alternative futures, which are significantly different from one another. The scenarios that planners create can be based on different assumptions about technology, demography, economics, politics, and other factors.
Creating these alternative futures can provide insights into how various events or trends could play out. It also allows for a better understanding of the range of possible outcomes and the risks and opportunities associated with each.
It is important to note that scenario planning is not a precise science; it cannot predict the future. However, it can help leaders make better decisions by providing a better understanding of the range of possible outcomes and the risks and opportunities associated with each.
When done correctly, scenario planning can also help identify potential triggers or tipping points – events or trends that could cause one future to unfold over another.
Here are 4 steps to creating scenarios:
Define the purpose of the foresight project – what are you trying to accomplish and in what timeframe?
Identify the key drivers of change – what are the factors that will have the biggest impact on your futures?
Develop a range of plausible futures – what are the different ways that these change drivers could play out?
Choose appropriate responses for each future – what are the best ways to respond to each of these different futures?
The benefits of thinking 5 to 10 years ahead are many. It can help leaders make better decisions by providing a better understanding of the range of possible outcomes and the risks and opportunities associated with each. It can also help them anticipate and adapt to change, and it can help them identify opportunities to shape their futures positively.
When done correctly, scenario planning is an essential tool for long-term success.
