How to Think About Futures.

A good way to create alternative views of futures is by building scenarios. This involves bringing together different trends, phenomena, and uncertainties to understand their interdependence and joint implications. These can then be built out as stories co-created with key stakeholders.

Identifying drivers of change.

To start creating scenarios, a range of possible futures can be created by defining several key uncertainties and then combining them in different ways. To do this, the main drivers that will determine a range of futures have to be identified.

Drivers of futures are key uncertainties to be included in the scenario that could have a large impact on your futures. For example, if your organisation wanted to create future scenarios for an environmental sustainability plan, you might include factors such as energy production, population growth rates, and cultural norms related to recycling.

The propensity model.

Another way to create views of alternative futures is by using a propensity model. This approach uses a set of probabilities for key drivers, as well as weighting factors that may change those probabilities over time. In this way, any number of possible futures can be described as a point with varying degrees of probability on each one.

The propensity model uses different scenarios to describe futures, based on probabilities of events occurring. For example, if an organisation wanted to forecast what parts of their business would grow the most over the next three years, they might use a propensity model that assigns probabilities for certain factors to play out in each scenario.

Using an impact matrix.

You could also use an impact matrix. This approach uses a list of key risks and opportunities. As an example, the matrix could set up an impact score across three categories: futures that are possible but unlikely to happen, futures that are probable or likely to happen, and futures that are highly likely to happen. In this way, any number of possible futures can be described as a point with varying degrees of likelihood.

The impact matrix can be used to describe futures by assigning probabilities for different events occurring. For example, if a company wanted to identify what regions they should be targeting in the next three years, they might use an impact matrix that assigns probabilities for certain factors to play out in each scenario.

Cluster analysis.

Cluster analysis allows for a high degree of creativity. This approach clusters future scenarios around different themes like; growth, status quo, decline, and transformation. In this way, several possible futures can be described as points clustered around various themes.

The cluster analysis is used to forecast the future by identifying common patterns or features in multiple scenarios. For example, if an organisation wanted to understand how changes in technology will affect the business in the next two years, you might use a cluster analysis that clusters certain scenarios around factors such as the rate of technology adoption and regulatory changes.

Use scenarios to expand your thinking.

The best approach to envisioning alternative future views will vary from organisation to organisation depending on what you need the most. If an organisation has limited time or resources and wants to narrow down its options quickly, a propensity model will likely be the best approach. If you are looking for greater detail, but still want to work within limited time or resources, an impact matrix may be the best option. If maximum insight and creativity in the brainstorming process is your objective, a cluster analysis could be the ideal method.

All four approaches have their strengths and weaknesses. Leaders should consider their organisation's needs when deciding which approach to use. For example, if you are interested in identifying areas for potential growth, clustering may be the best method because it allows the exploration of different themes that could lead to growth opportunities for your business. However, if you know there is a specific region or market to explore further, use an impact matrix to target your efforts in that area.

Sometimes it can be difficult to determine which method to use when brainstorming alternative future views. It could therefore be helpful to try all four approaches before settling on one. Not only does this give them the best possible view of futures, but it also allows you to learn more about your own business. After all, the more you know about your organisation, the better equipped you'll be to navigate whatever futures come your way. It will help you be ready whats what happens next.

This was a general overview of how to create views of futures. If you would like to learn more about scenarios, please contact insight & foresight and start a conversation today.