Case Study: How to Use Scenarios to Review an Operations Plan, Mid Strategy.
Summary.
A large regional council held a strategic planning session to set organisational direction for the next 12 months and envision plausible futures over 5-10 years.
22 emerging trends impacting the next 5-10 years were identified from the Futures Platform™ database and grouped in STEEP categories.
In a 2-day workshop, experiential learning techniques engaged executives to reflect on phenomena and implications through prioritising, futures wheels, change drivers, and scenario creation exercises.
The scenarios developed enabled the council to consider a wide range of potential futures and generate insights to inform plans.
Looking ahead, council executives acknowledged a priority of building foresight capability and incorporating futures thinking regularly into strategic decision-making and operations planning reviews.
By consistently using foresight, the council can stay proactive and prepared for challenges and opportunities in a fast-changing world.
Situation.
Midway through a 5-year strategic plan a large regional council wanted to hold an executive team strategic planning session to set the organisation’s direction for the next 12 months, with an understanding of what the 5 to 10-year plausible futures could look like. The objectives were to elongate and elevate the executive team's thinking, identify paradigm shifts, support robust futures thinking, and promote creativity and unconventional approaches to break the conventional operating rhythm. The desired outcomes were to foster innovative thinking, address big challenges, learn elements of strategic foresight, collaborate effectively as an executive team, and create concise and inspiring messages to ensure organisational alignment and motivation.
Solution.
The Futures Platform™ database was used to identify 22 emerging change and trend phenomena identified as having the potential to impact the council over the next 5 to 10 years. The phenomena were grouped within the STEEP framework categories: Society, Technology, Economy, Environment and Politics. The phenomena were presented as pre-reading to the executive before a 2-day workshop.
In the 2-day executive workshop experiential learning techniques were used to actively engage participants in a learning experience and then reflect on that experience to gain new knowledge, insight, and ideas. Participants were taken through a series of exercises designed to stimulate discussion and debate around the identified phenomena. They were asked to reflect on potential outcomes and implications for the council and consider how these phenomena may interact with each other. Tools used included:
Prioritising - ranking the 22 phenomena by the probability of occurring and intensity of impact.
Futures Wheel - visually mapping the primary and secondary future impacts of a phenomenon.
Change Drivers - grouping phenomena into clusters according to commonalities.
Scenario Creation - combining change drivers to create a set of 4 plausible alternative futures.
Design Fiction - developing narratives and visuals from the generated scenarios to aid in understanding potential futures.
BAU Objectives Review - a review of the council's current objectives to assess how uncertainty could affect their relevance and effectiveness in delivering strategic goals
Outcomes.
The workshop allowed for a greater level of foresight and innovation by challenging assumptions and biases, allowing the executive team to think more creatively about their futures. By using experiential learning techniques, the executives were able to gain new knowledge and insights that they could then apply to their role within the council. This will ultimately lead to more informed decision-making and a better understanding of potential outcomes and implications for the council's operations planning and strategy development.
Throughout the workshop, the executive upheld a strategic mindset, steering clear of operational thinking. The 4 scenarios developed during the workshop enabled the council to consider a wide range of potential futures and generate insights into possible, probable and preferred developments. Looking ahead, scenario planning shows great potential for future strategic planning in the council, providing a framework for considering various possibilities and adapting plans accordingly.
By incorporating foresight into their operations plan review process, the council can stay ahead of emerging trends and potential challenges to better serve their community. This approach allows for flexibility and agility in decision-making rather than being reactive to unexpected events or changes.
Going forward, the executive has acknowledged that prioritising foresight capability building and incorporating futures thinking regularly is a high priority. Through this workshop, they have recognised the potential of scenario planning in their operations plan review process and are committed to continuing to use it as a tool for strategic decision-making. By consistently incorporating foresight and futures thinking into their practices, the council can stay proactive and prepared for any challenges and opportunities that could arise in a fast-changing world.
Case studies are not intended to represent or guarantee that current or future customers or clients can achieve the same or similar results; rather, they represent what is possible for illustrative purposes only.
